US, European yields unlikely to fall soon, economists say

Experts projected that US 10-year Treasury yields would decline only slightly from current levels to end the year at 5.1%, and would dip to around 4.8% 12 months later. Borrowing costs are likely to remain elevated across the US and Europe for the foreseeable future, economists said. Experts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal projected that US 10-year Treasury yields would decline only slightly from current levels to end the year at 5.1%, and would dip to around 4.8% 12 months later: “ It has been a sea change in the fundamentals underlying the fixed-income market and the economy,” one told the Journal. A key factor, as the economist David Skilling wrote in a recent note, has been that “ state capitalism … is a much more capex-intensive regime ” just as “the global economy is moving from a savings-abundant environment towards one in which available capital is becoming scarcer.”