Cocoa Rises as West African Crop Risks Intensify

Cocoa futures traded above $5,600 a tonne, nearly doubling from the three-year low of $2,888 recorded on February 27, as concerns over West African production strengthened the supply outlook’s risks. The potential development of a stronger El Niño weather pattern is adding uncertainty, with Ivory Coast’s state weather agency forecasting below-normal rainfall through early 2027. West Africa accounts for more than half of global cocoa production, leaving international supplies particularly exposed to adverse weather conditions in the region. StoneX Group estimates that Ivory Coast’s output could decline by 11% to 1.8 million tonnes in the 2026—27 season. Ghana, the world’s second-largest producer, is also anticipating a weaker harvest, with production projected to fall approximately 13% to 650,000 tonnes.