Rice Futures Linger at Over 2-Year High

Rice futures have sustained their recent gains, trading near $17 per hundredweight, their highest level since July 2024, amid concerns over tightening supply and rising logistical costs. In its October outlook, the FAO forecast global rice production at 552.5 million tonnes for the 2026/27 season, down 2.4% from the prior season’s record. Although global stocks are expected to remain historically high, potentially cushioning supply pressures, adverse weather is adding to production risks in key Asian markets. In India, output is forecast to fall by 6.5% in 2026 to 144 million tonnes, as below-normal monsoon rainfall and reduced summer planting weigh on production. Meanwhile, flooding in Thailand is disrupting river transport and delaying planting for the next crop, while the risk of El Niño-related weather disruptions adds further uncertainty over yields across Asia. Higher fuel, freight and insurance costs amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are also supporting prices.