Oil prices retreat as Trump rules out Iran strikes
December Brent crude fell 1.4% to $102.80 a barrel and WTI dropped 1.1% to $89.75 after surging Thursday. Traders weighed the U.S. president’s remarks on Iran against persistent Gulf shipping risks and Gulf of Mexico production shut-ins.
S. midterm elections against persistent shipping risks in the Persian Gulf and extensive offshore production shut-ins in the Gulf of Mexico. 75 a barrel. 70 before paring gains.
S. wouldn't attack Iran before the November midterm elections, citing what he called "productive discussions" with Tehran. S. naval blockade of Iran remains in place, with roughly a dozen Navy ships in the region, The Wall Street Journal reported.
S. offshore production remains disrupted, Hani Abuagla, senior market analyst at XTB MENA, said. Analysts at MUFG said geopolitical risks remain elevated amid fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, while shipping through the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz continues to face threats. Brent's spread between the first two futures months remains in backwardation at around $3 a barrel, indicating continued tightness in the near-term market, they said.
Backwardation is when near-term oil futures trade at a premium to contracts for later delivery, typically indicating tighter supplies in the immediate market. Goldman Sachs estimated that Brent's geopolitical risk premium reached $22 a barrel in September, the second-highest monthly level on record, compared with a peak of $16 during the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. The bank also estimated that a 100 million-barrel decline in commercial inventories across OECD countries raised Brent's fair value by nearly $8 a barrel. Tensions elsewhere in the region also remain high.
Iran and its Houthi allies in Yemen carried out another series of attacks Wednesday night and Thursday, including strikes targeting shipping in the Persian Gulf and Saudi Arabia, The Wall Street Journal reported. S. also increased economic pressure on Tehran on Thursday. The Treasury Department sanctioned 17 vessels it said were part of Iran's remaining shadow fleet and had transported millions of barrels of Iranian crude, petroleum and petrochemical products to markets in South and East Asia.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Isaias has sharply increased disruptions to production in the Gulf of Mexico. 9% of current offshore oil output, had been shut in as of Thursday morning, up from about 511,600 barrels a day the day before. Personnel had been evacuated from 121 production platforms and five drilling rigs. S.
Gulf Coast, according to the National Hurricane Center. S. Gulf Coast refineries has narrowed despite the offshore shutdowns. 5 million barrels a day expected earlier in the week, S&P Global Energy said.
S. 1 million barrels a day the previous week, S&P said. com (END) Dow Jones Newswires October 09, 2026 08:59 ET (12:59 GMT) Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. The statements in this document shall not be considered as an objective or independent explanation of the matters.
Please note that this document (a) has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and (b) is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination or publication of investment research.