Australia 10Y Yield Retreats from 15-Year Highs

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield held below 5.4% after pulling back from 15-year highs, tracking a sharp decline in US Treasury yields. Strong demand at US government bond auctions pushed Treasury yields lower, offering some relief to global markets after weeks of heavy selling. Oil prices also declined after President Trump’s comments on productive US-Iran talks eased concerns over an escalation in tensions. This eased fears of energy-driven inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates. Focus now turns to Australia’s September employment report due next week, following an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6% in August. A further increase in joblessness would strengthen the case against another RBA rate hike after last month’s increase lifted the cash rate to 4.60%. Markets imply around a 30% chance of a hike in November, rising to 46% in December. The RBA’s October 13 meeting minutes and the September-quarter CPI report later this month will also be in focus.