Ibovespa Gains Ahead of Election Runoff Poll

The Ibovespa rose 0.9% to close at 206,220 on Thursday ahead of the first Datafolha poll for the presidential runoff, due shortly after the close. A PoderData/Aya poll showed Senator Flávio Bolsonaro with 53% of valid votes, against 47% for incumbent Lula. In Sunday’s first-round election, Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula, contrary to most polls, pushing the index to an all-time high on Monday, led by financial stocks. Markets view the senator as more fiscally restrictive amid elevated domestic yields and weak business activity. His economic team is considering spending cuts equivalent to around 2% of GDP. Financials traded mixed, with B3 gaining 2% and Bradesco falling 1.3%. Petrobras followed the sharp rise in international oil prices, gaining 2.1%. Retail stocks also supported the index, with Magazine Luiza jumping 5.6%. Meanwhile, Vale extended its losing streak to four sessions, falling 1.6% as iron ore prices hit an 18-month low in China.