US PMI Manufacturing: 55.7
US preliminary S&P PMI manufacturing rises to 55.7 in June, exceeding expectations, with manufacturing output growing at the fastest rate since July 2021
PMI Services: 51.3 v 51.1e (3rd month of expansion) - - PMI Composite: 52.2 v 52.1e - - Comments: "Brighter news out of the Middle East has helped restore some confidence among US businesses in June, though the overall rate of economic growth signalled by the flash PMI survey remains relatively sluggish compared to that seen earlier in the year in the lead up to the conflict.
The survey signals that current output levels are consistent with the economy struggling to grow much faster than a 1% annualized rate in the second quarter. - - “ The service sector continues to grow at an especially subdued pace, reflecting push-back from customers over high prices amid low levels of consumer confidence in particular.
While there is better news from the manufacturing sector, we remain concerned as factory growth continues to be temporarily buoyed by inventory building amid supply fears.
Supply delays grew more widespread in June. - - “Most worrying was the further fall in employment, notably in the manufacturing sector.
Factory job cuts are running at the highest since 2009 if the pandemic is excluded, reflecting concerns over the sustainability of the recent upturn in demand alongside worries over the escalating cost of raw materials.
However, while still running at one of the highest rates seen over the past four years, input cost inflation has shown sign of cooling in June thanks in part to the lower energy prices seen at the tail end of the survey data collection period.” - - Manufacturing output grew at the fastest rate since July 2021 in response to the largest rise in new orders for just over four years.
However, the manufacturing expansion was again partly attributable to demand being temporarily supported by the front-running of potential supply issues and price hikes associated with the war.
Input buying by factories rose at a pace not seen since September 2021, and inventories of inputs were accumulated in June at the fastest rate in the near-two-decade survey history barring only the rise following the announcement of tariffs in 2025. - - Supply chains and prices - - Supply chain delays grew more widespread in June.
Supplier delivery times lengthened on average to the greatest extent since August 2022, commonly linked to shipping disruptions due to the war in the Middle East as well as tariffs.
Average input prices meanwhile rose sharply, the rate of inflation dipping from May but nonetheless the third-highest recorded since the start of 2023.
Although manufacturing input cost inflation moderated from May’s recent peak, it was the second-highest for almost four years. - - Services input cost inflation meanwhile edged up to a six-month high.
Average prices charged for goods and services rose at a pace unchanged on that seen in May, which had been the highest since July 2025.
Cooler, but still elevated, goods price inflation was accompanied by an increase in service sector selling price inflation to an 11-month high. - - Employment - - Employment fell for a second month running in June, and for the third time in the past four months, as companies commonly continued to focus on cost reduction amid high input prices and concerns over the outlook.
While only a modest drop in services jobs was reported, manufacturing headcounts were cut at the fastest rate since the COVID-19 lockdowns of early 2020.