Goldman Sachs: French Elections

Rassemblement National’s recent fiscal proposals provide greater clarity on how the party intends to address France’s public-finance challenges. Its counter-budget envisages substantial consolidation next year, improving the primary balance from a deficit of 2.6% to 0.6% of GDP. However, implementing an adjustment of this scale would likely prove difficult given the election timetable and potential economic costs. The proposals may nevertheless indicate the fiscal concessions the party would seek in exchange for supporting the government’s budget. The party’s medium-term plans envisage a primary surplus of 1.2% of GDP by 2032, putting public debt on a declining trajectory. This broadly aligns with assessments that France will eventually need a primary surplus exceeding 1% of GDP to stabilise and reduce its debt burden. However, some assumptions appear optimistic, particularly the expectation that growth will accelerate to 1.8% between 2028 and 2030 despite substantial fiscal tightening over the same period. Marine Le Pen has also proposed a fiscal “golden rule”, constitutionally requiring annual improvements in the government balance until it exceeds the debt-stabilising level by 0