Analyst Warns Iran's Latest Attacks on Ships Could Mean the End of Ship-to-Ship Transfers: 'It's Game Over'
Obsidian Risk Advisors Managing Principal Brett Erickson warned Wednesday that a fire detected aboard a Marshall Islands-flagged VLCC near Fujairah could have broader implications for the Gulf of Oman ‘s increasingly important ship-to-ship oil-transfer network. ‘It’s Game Over,’ Analyst Says In a post on X, Erickson quoted a post by Faytuks Network that said that a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) was spotted on fire by NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) Satellites. The images show a fire incident off the coast of Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman. Read Also: Trump Says Iran War Could End ‘The Nice Way’ or ‘The Not-So-Nice Way’ — 'Pretty Soon You'll Find Out' Erickson said that another vessel had been struck in the region, but that this incident took place “just a few miles away from where the Gulf of Oman ship-to -ship transfers take place.” While Ship-to-ship transfers are legal and widely used in legitimate maritime commerce, some vessels involved in sanctions evasion or so-called shadow-fleet activity switch off or manipulate AIS and other tracking signals to obscure their movements. STS is also used by the “shadow fleet” or “dark fleet” to bypass sanction
Obsidian Risk Advisors Managing Principal Brett Erickson warned Wednesday that a fire detected aboard a Marshall Islands-flagged VLCC near Fujairah could have broader implications for the Gulf of Oman ‘s increasingly important ship-to-ship oil-transfer network. ‘It’s Game Over,’ Analyst Says In a post on X, Erickson quoted a post by Faytuks Network that said that a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) was spotted on fire by NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) Satellites. The images show a fire incident off the coast of Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman.
” While Ship-to-ship transfers are legal and widely used in legitimate maritime commerce, some vessels involved in sanctions evasion or so-called shadow-fleet activity switch off or manipulate AIS and other tracking signals to obscure their movements. STS is also used by the “shadow fleet” or “dark fleet” to bypass sanctions. Shadow fleets use tactics like hiding or faking AIS data to obscure their location, as well as the cargo’s origin. “This is a clear sign from Iran that they simply weren’t TRYING to fully close Hormuz.
If the STS transfers are shut down…” Erickson said, “It’s game over,” the analyst added. NEW: Another vessel is on fire near the Strait of Hormuz today, but this vessel is NOTABLY located just a few miles away from where the Gulf of Oman ship-to -ship transfers take place. This is a clear sign from Iran that they simply weren’t TRYING to fully close Hormuz. If the… — Brett Erickson (@BrettErickson28) October 8, 2026 As per data from Marine Traffic also confirmed that the Marshall Islands-flagged ship Dhalkut’s navigation status was “stopped” and it was off the coast of Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman.
S. is reportedly preparing to launch a fresh round of attacks against Iran, with the Department of War targeting Iran’s Nuclear and Energy infrastructure. ’s control over the Strait of Hormuz. ’s economic restrictions, criticizing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
Rezaee also reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz would not reopen under economic pressure. Read Also: Strait of Hormuz Crisis Sends Ship Captain Pay to $150,000 a Month — Including ‘Danger Money’: Report Check out more of Future Of Mobility coverage by following this link. Photo courtesy: Shutterstock