Press Release: Fitch Affirms British Airways at 'BBB'; Outlook Stable -2
We could revise the SCP to 'bbb' on EBITDAR leverage below 2.0x and EBITDAR net leverage below 1.0x on a sustained basis and EBITDAR fixed charge coverage above 4.0x BA EETC 2018-1 Class AA Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade - Ratings for the class AA certificates are primarily based on a top-down analysis using the value of the collateral. Therefore, negative rating action could be driven by an unexpected and large decline in collateral values. Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade - Fitch may upgrade the ratings to 'AA+' if collateral coverage continues to increase as the transaction amortizes. BA EETC 2018-1 Class A Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade - The rating of the class A tranche is influenced by Fitch's view of BA's corporate credit profile, so a downgrade may follow a downgrade of the airline's IDR by two or more notches. Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade - An upgrade is unlikely given the cap at 'A-' for subordinated tranches for airlines with
0x BA EETC 2018-1 Class AA Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade Ratings for the class AA certificates are primarily based on a top-down analysis using the value of the collateral. Therefore, negative rating action could be driven by an unexpected and large decline in collateral values. Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade Fitch may upgrade the ratings to 'AA+' if collateral coverage continues to increase as the transaction amortizes.
BA EETC 2018-1 Class A Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade The rating of the class A tranche is influenced by Fitch's view of BA's corporate credit profile, so a downgrade may follow a downgrade of the airline's IDR by two or more notches. Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade An upgrade is unlikely given the cap at 'A-' for subordinated tranches for airlines with IDRs in the 'BBB' category. 8 billion (equivalent) expiring in June 2029. We forecast positive free cash flow generation over 2026-2028.
Available liquidity and cash flow generation are sufficient to cover debt maturities over 2026-28. Issuer Profile BA is the fourth-largest European airline based on pre-pandemic passenger-revenue-kilometres and the largest UK international airline. It benefits from an extensively diversified route structure, strong position at Heathrow hub and in the transatlantic market. REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS Click here to access Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor data file which aggregates key data points used in our credit analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items included. VS) for BA for 2035 is 51 out of 100, suggesting elevated exposure to climate-related risks in that year. This is in line with other airlines and reflects the gradually growing costs linked to the decarbonization of the sector.
At present, climate transition risks do not have a material influence on airline ratings, including BA's, because the potentially disruptive changes due to the clean energy transition are unlikely to materialize in the next eight to 10 years. Incremental costs such as those due to carbon offsetting and Sustainable Aviation Fuel usage are applicable to BA and its peer group, and are included in our forecasts ESG Considerations The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless otherwise disclosed in this section.
A score of '3' means ESG issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision. com Additional information is available on APPLICABLE CRITERIA Aircraft Enhanced Equipment Trust Certificates Rating Criteria (pub. 22 Jun 2023) (including rating assumption sensitivity) Corporate Rating Criteria (pub.
09 Jan 2026) (including rating assumption sensitivity) Corporates Recovery Ratings and Instrument Ratings Criteria (pub. 02 Aug 2024) (including rating assumption sensitivity) Parent and Subsidiary Linkage Rating Criteria (pub. 27 Jun 2025) Sector Navigators -- Addendum to the Corporate Rating Criteria (pub. 09 Jan 2026) Applicable Model Numbers in parentheses accompanying applicable model(s) contain hyperlinks to criteria providing description of model(s).
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