NHC: Tropical depression expected to form off southern Mexico
A broad area of low pressure off southern Mexico is expected to develop into a tropical depression within the next day or so, with heavy rainfall forecast across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued its 1100 PM PDT Tue Oct 6 2026 tropical weather outlook for the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude. It said a broad low-pressure area offshore southern Mexico is generating disorganized showers and thunderstorms, with conditions favourable for gradual development and a tropical depression expected to form within the next day or so as the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
The NHC said heavy rainfall is forecast across parts of southern and southwestern Mexico over the next few days regardless of development, and interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the system. The outlook put the formation chance through 48 hours at high, 90 percent, and through 7 days at high, 90 percent. A tropical depression is forecast to form south of Guatemala’s coast early next week, with conditions seen as favourable for gradual development as the system tracks generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. Formation chances are low through 48 hours at near 0 percent, and low through 7 days at 30 percent.
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