UBS raises 2026-27 Brent oil price forecast on supply fears
UBS raised its Brent crude price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing persistent Middle East supply disruptions and the fragile recovery of flows. The bank forecasts Brent at $100 per barrel in Q4 2026, up from a previous view of $80, and $91.57 as the 2026 average, compared to $83.74 previously.
(Updates with UBS) Oct 6(Reuters) — UBS raised its Brent crude price forecasts for the 2026 and 2027 stating that Middle East flows were disrupted more than expected following the breakdown of the June US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding and added that the recovery remains fragile given the ongoing attacks. "While Hormuz flows have materially recovered in recent weeks, this improvement has come at great expense and remains fragile given ongoing Iranian attacks," UBS said in the note dated Monday. 74 for the same period.
"We assume a gradual normalisation of regional oil flows through the first half of 2027 on the basis of a similar arrangement to the June MoU by the end of the year but factor in a higher near-term risk premium as the path to normalisation remains uncertain," the bank said. New attacks and disruptions to flows could send prices to $120+/bbl, the bank said, adding that oil prices might fall more rapidly than anticipated if a US-Iran agreement is reached and flows ramp up more quickly.
Gulf oil exporters topped pre-war levels for about half of September, shipping data showed on Monday, although attacks on tankers and logistical constraints cloud the outlook for sustained higher flows. Oil prices fell on Tuesday as resilient Middle Eastern crude exports and a G7 emergency stockpile release eased supply concerns, though lingering security risks in the region capped further losses. 70 a barrel. 50 24, previously previou ($82.
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