NHC: Tropical depression likely to form in Gulf of Mexico this week
A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle portion of the week.
The National Hurricane Center said at 800 PM EDT on Oct. 5, 2026, that a trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America, designated AL92, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The agency said environmental conditions are only marginally favourable, but gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle part of the week. The system is forecast to drift east-northeastward over the next couple of days before turning northward.
It is too early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests there should monitor the system closely. Formation chance through 48 hours is high at 70 percent, and the chance through 7 days is high at 80 percent.