Deutsche Bank: September Jobs Data Still Points to a Stable Labour Market
September payrolls disappointed, with headline employment rising 29K and private payrolls 46K, alongside 60K of downward revisions to the previous two months. Average hourly earnings also slowed to 0.1% month-on-month, although labour-income growth remained relatively firm at an annualised 4.2%, still supportive of consumer spending. The household survey was more encouraging. The unemployment rate edged only slightly higher to 4.175%, while the U-6 rate fell to 7.6%, employment rose by 406K and labour-force participation climbed to 61.8%, its highest since May. Prime-age participation and employment rates also continued to recover. Overall, the labour market still looks broadly stable, with low firing, resilient hiring indicators and some signs of tightening in parts of the economy, leaving the Fed more focused on inflation. The base case remains for two further 25bp hikes over the next couple of quarters.
September payrolls disappointed, with headline employment rising 29K and private payrolls 46K, alongside 60K of downward revisions to the previous two months. 2%, still supportive of consumer spending. The household survey was more encouraging. 8%, its highest since May.
Prime-age participation and employment rates also continued to recover. Overall, the labour market still looks broadly stable, with low firing, resilient hiring indicators and some signs of tightening in parts of the economy, leaving the Fed more focused on inflation. The base case remains for two further 25bp hikes over the next couple of quarters.