Fed Still on Track to Hike Interest Rates in October? Here's What Prediction Markets Say
Cryptocurrency bettors have sharply lowered the odds of a quarter-point interest rate in October, following pushback from key Federal Reserve officials against rushing the next policy move. Rate Hike Bets Cool Across Prediction Markets The odds of a 0.25% rate cut by the Kevin Warsh -led Fed stood at 25% on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL) -based Polymarket, down from 67% a week ago. In the same period, the probability of rates remaining unchanged soared from 33% to 75%. Over $22 million has been wagered on the outcome. The market’s resolution will depend on the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement following the Oct. 28 meeting. Source: Polymarket Kalshi punters moved in unison, lowering the rate hike probability from 64% to 27% in a week. Odds have also tumbled on the CME FedWatch tracker, from 64% to 28%. Read Also: As Trump Threatens Iran, Global Settlement CEO Warns War Bets Create Perverse Incentives Fed Officials Say There’s No Need for Urgency The significant drop comes as New York Fed President John Williams signaled a cautious approach to future monetary policy. Williams said earlier this week that policymakers "have time to gather more information" and "there is no need for urg
Cryptocurrency bettors have sharply lowered the odds of a quarter-point interest rate in October, following pushback from key Federal Reserve officials against rushing the next policy move. 25% rate cut by the Kevin Warsh -led Fed stood at 25% on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL) -based Polymarket, down from 67% a week ago. In the same period, the probability of rates remaining unchanged soared from 33% to 75%. Over $22 million has been wagered on the outcome.
The market’s resolution will depend on the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement following the Oct. 28 meeting. Source: Polymarket Kalshi punters moved in unison, lowering the rate hike probability from 64% to 27% in a week. Odds have also tumbled on the CME FedWatch tracker, from 64% to 28%.
Read Also: As Trump Threatens Iran, Global Settlement CEO Warns War Bets Create Perverse Incentives Fed Officials Say There’s No Need for Urgency The significant drop comes as New York Fed President John Williams signaled a cautious approach to future monetary policy. " Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson echoed a similar view on Thursday, stating that he and his colleagues "will need to come to our own judgment, which may take more time" before shifting monetary policy. Oliver Rust, Head of Data at blockchain-based data tracing platform Truflation, said another rate hike is hard to justify, arguing that underlying inflation is cooling. 4%.
7% consensus. Read Also: Could Trump Ban Diesel Exports? Here's What Prediction Markets Say Kalshi and have an existing data collaboration agreement. com