Sugar Futures Remain High

US sugar futures traded near 19 per pound, close to their highest since April 2025, amid growing supply concerns. While current supplies remain ample, the outlook is tightening rapidly as El Niño raises the risk of a deficit in the new season. StoneX recently projected a global sugar deficit of 900,000 tons in the 2026/27 crop year, suggesting the market could enter 2027 with tighter supplies. Several major producers are expected to see lower output in 2026/27, including Thailand, India and the European Union. Thai sugar production is expected to fall by at least 17% to below 10 million tons, while below-normal monsoon rainfall in India is raising concerns over cane yields. In Europe, extreme summer heat is weighing on the sugar-beet crop, with production expected to decline by 19%. Meanwhile, wetter-than-normal conditions in Brazil’s Center-South are delaying harvesting and crushing, limiting mills’ ability to increase the share of cane allocated to sugar.