Tom Lee Says ‘Buckle Up’ for Stock Market Rally as S&P 500 Historical Setup Signals Strong Q4
Fundstrat Chief Investment Officer Tom Lee urged investors to "Buckle up" for a potential stock market rally, pointing to a historical S&P 500 setup that indicates a strong fourth quarter. Commenting on mid-year market performance statistics, Lee stated in a post on X that the " 4Q looking good." Current Market Setup and Q3 Gain Lee highlighted analysis from financial tracking account OddStats, which maps S&P 500 performance following specific mid-year returns. The data isolates instances where the index achieved a second-quarter gain of roughly 14% or higher alongside a positive third-quarter return. In the current market setup for 2026, the S&P 500 posted a 14.87% return in the second quarter. This was followed by a positive third-quarter gain of 2.03%, as the index climbed from 7,499.36 points on June 30 to close at 7,651.54 points on Sept. 30. OddStats noted that barring a spectacular crash late in the quarter, the index successfully completed this sequence entering the fourth quarter. Buckle up 4Q looking good pic.twitter.com/BJYyWgyaql — Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com (@fundstrat) October 1, 2026 Read Also: Tom Lee Says Cooling Inflation Could Give US Fed
Fundstrat Chief Investment Officer Tom Lee urged investors to "Buckle up" for a potential stock market rally, pointing to a historical S&P 500 setup that indicates a strong fourth quarter. " Current Market Setup and Q3 Gain Lee highlighted analysis from financial tracking account OddStats, which maps S&P 500 performance following specific mid-year returns. The data isolates instances where the index achieved a second-quarter gain of roughly 14% or higher alongside a positive third-quarter return. 87% return in the second quarter.
54 points on Sept. 30. OddStats noted that barring a spectacular crash late in the quarter, the index successfully completed this sequence entering the fourth quarter. com demonstrates that every historical instance matching these specific criteria since 1935 has resulted in positive fourth-quarter returns.
69% fourth-quarter gain. 49% fourth-quarter rise. 64% fourth-quarter gain. 44% fourth-quarter increase.
92% fourth-quarter gain. 88% fourth-quarter gain. How Has the Stock Market Performed in 2026? 56% year-to-date.
22% YTD. On Wednesday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY ) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed mixed. 77. 55.
38% higher. Read Also: S&P 500 Could Deliver Another 6% by Year-End as JPMorgan Calls Bears an ‘Extinct Species’ — Polymarket Bettors Price 35% Odds Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published editors. Image via Shutterstock