Goldman Sachs: Oil
Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered to an estimated 23.3mb/d over the past week, roughly in line with their 2025 average, after exports doubled in September. The recovery has been driven by higher flows through the Strait of Hormuz, including ship-to-ship transfers, despite the Saudi East-West pipeline attack that disrupted flows to Yanbu for nearly two weeks and the ongoing Houthi blockade of Saudi exports through Bab-al-Mandab. Crude accounted for almost 90% of the September increase, reaching 19mb/d, or 108% of the 2025 average. Refined-product exports have also increased, although diesel, gasoline and jet-fuel exports remain around half their 2025 average due to elevated refinery outages and greater risks for refined-product tankers crossing Hormuz. There has also been a divergence between Iran and other Gulf producers. Saudi exports more than doubled in September, reaching 11.6mb/d over the past week and moving above their 2025 average, helped by the redirection of Red Sea exports toward eastern ports and increased estimated dark transits. UAE exports are also above their 2025 average, with potential for further increases. In contrast, satellite data indicate no seaborne e
3mb/d over the past week, roughly in line with their 2025 average, after exports doubled in September. The recovery has been driven by higher flows through the Strait of Hormuz, including ship-to-ship transfers, despite the Saudi East-West pipeline attack that disrupted flows to Yanbu for nearly two weeks and the ongoing Houthi blockade of Saudi exports through Bab-al-Mandab. Crude accounted for almost 90% of the September increase, reaching 19mb/d, or 108% of the 2025 average.
Refined-product exports have also increased, although diesel, gasoline and jet-fuel exports remain around half their 2025 average due to elevated refinery outages and greater risks for refined-product tankers crossing Hormuz. There has also been a divergence between Iran and other Gulf producers. 6mb/d over the past week and moving above their 2025 average, helped by the redirection of Red Sea exports toward eastern ports and increased estimated dark transits. UAE exports are also above their 2025 average, with potential for further increases.
In contrast, satellite data indicate no seaborne exports of crude or major refined products from Iran during September. Overall, the global oil market appears roughly balanced, with recovering Gulf exports and broadly stable visible inventories, while OECD commercial stocks remain around late-February 2026 levels. The adaptation of Middle Eastern supply and Chinese import demand supports a base case for Brent to moderate toward $85/bbl by year-end and $80/bbl in 2027. However, oil prices remain elevated, with dated Brent near $120/bbl, reflecting a substantial risk premium.
This likely incorporates the risk that renewed escalation could damage additional energy infrastructure and threaten longer-term production, alongside historically low global inventories outside OECD commercial stocks and the resulting incentive to rebuild inventories quickly amid heightened supply risks.