Carnival Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Josh Weinstein Say?
Carnival Corporation Ltd. (NYSE: CCL ) reports fiscal third-quarter earnings before the bell Tuesday, with Wall Street expecting adjusted EPS of $1.35 on roughly $8.39 billion in revenue. Carnival has topped earnings estimates for 12 straight quarters and Polymarket traders give it a 92% chance of reporting non-GAAP EPS above the market’s $1.37 threshold. The more interesting action is on Kalshi, where nearly $330,000 has been traded on the exact words CEO Josh Weinstein and his team will use on the 10 a.m. ET call. What Kalshi Predicts Weinstein Will Say "Holland America" leads at 82%, "Dry Dock" sits at 73% and "Modernization" at 58%. Carnival will begin upgrading six Holland America ships in 2027, adding cabins and refreshing guest areas. Weinstein said the extra cabins could pay for themselves within a couple of years, while the broader upgrades should generate returns in the high teens. "Dividend" is at 77% and "PROPEL" at 70%. Carnival distributed $207 million in dividends last quarter and has repurchased more than $450 million of stock. Its PROPEL plan targets more than 50% EPS growth from 2025, return on invested capital above 16% and roughly $14 billion returned to shareho
Carnival Corporation Ltd. 39 billion in revenue. 37 threshold. m.
ET call. What Kalshi Predicts Weinstein Will Say "Holland America" leads at 82%, "Dry Dock" sits at 73% and "Modernization" at 58%. Carnival will begin upgrading six Holland America ships in 2027, adding cabins and refreshing guest areas. Weinstein said the extra cabins could pay for themselves within a couple of years, while the broader upgrades should generate returns in the high teens.
"Dividend" is at 77% and "PROPEL" at 70%. Carnival distributed $207 million in dividends last quarter and has repurchased more than $450 million of stock. Its PROPEL plan targets more than 50% EPS growth from 2025, return on invested capital above 16% and roughly $14 billion returned to shareholders through 2029. "Middle East" sits at 73%, "Headwind" at 67% and "Tailwind" at 51%.
The Middle East conflict weighed on European bookings last quarter, leading Carnival to trim its full-year net-yield outlook. " "AI" sits at 53%. CFO David Bernstein said suppliers adopting AI should become more efficient, giving Carnival room to push for lower fees. "Princess" is a coin flip at 50%.
Carnival ordered three new Princess ships for delivery in 2035, 2038 and 2039. What Kalshi Predicts Weinstein Will Skip "Consumer Sentiment" sits at 41%. Both Weinstein and Bernstein used the exact phrase on last quarter’s call, each describing sentiment as historically low before pointing to demand that held up anyway. "Inflation" is at 30%, while "Oil" sits at just 19%.
Fuel prices jumped nearly 30% last quarter, but Carnival consistently called it "fuel," and the word "oil" did not appear on the previous earnings call. "Tariff" sits at 10%. On last quarter’s call, Weinstein mentioned tariffs while discussing the Middle East hit to bookings. He said tariff-related volatility caused a similar disruption in 2025 before consumers adjusted and bookings recovered.
"Iran" is last at 7%. Carnival repeatedly discussed the Middle East conflict without naming Iran on its previous call. Reading the Board Traders expect Weinstein to focus on fleet investment, shareholder returns and whether the Middle East hit to bookings is fading. Carnival heads into Tuesday’s report with a strong booked position.
It posted record revenue, net yields and adjusted net income last quarter, while customer deposits reached an all-time high of $9 billion. The company was also 93% booked for 2026, with 2027 bookings running ahead of the prior year at higher prices. The question is whether Carnival can keep that momentum while absorbing higher fuel costs and softer European demand. Kalshi and have an existing data collaboration agreement.
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