Deutche Banks's View on US Eco Data

In the US, attention will increasingly turn towards Friday’s September payrolls report. Following August’s stronger-than-expected gain of 162k, our economists expect payrolls to rise by around 45k in September (Friday), with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1% and average hourly earnings growth steady at +0.3% month-on-month. Recent labour market indicators have remained reasonably firm, although some moderation after August’s strength would be consistent with a labour market that is cooling only gradually. Ahead of Friday’s payrolls release, labour market data will begin arriving tomorrow with the August JOLTS report, before the September ADP employment release on Wednesday and weekly jobless claims on Thursday. Together, these releases should help shape last minute expectations going into the official employment report. Note that last week saw claims at 197k, a rare dip below 200k. Moving onto inflation, our economists expect the August core PCE deflator (Wednesday) to rise by +0.27% month-on-month, slightly above July’s pace. The report will be accompanied by personal income and spending data, where our economists expect gains of +0.5% and +0.6% respectively. Particular atte