Live News MACRO ARTICLE M impact Sep 28, 2026, 08:36 AM UTC

Global markets fall as Brent jumps 3% and 30-year Treasury yield rises

Stocks fell, Brent crude rose as much as 3% to $107.16 a barrel and 30-year Treasury yields climbed to 5.517%, near the highest since 2004. The dollar firmed, gold fell 3% and the yen strengthened after Japan's top currency diplomat warned against excessive falls.

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SquawkNews Newsroom 1 updates Updated Sep 28, 2026, 08:41 AM UTC

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08:41:46 AM UTC

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(Updates for European morning trading) Oil rises as US-Iran frictions underscore supply risks Dollar holds firm, key data eyed for Fed rate outlook Yen strengthens; Aussie awaits RBA hike By Samuel Indyk and Jiaxing Li LONDON, Sept 28 (Reuters) — The US dollar was steady near a two-month high as the US-Iran standoff continued to push up oil prices and Treasury yields, while investors looked ahead to a data-packed week for further clues about the path of central bank policy. The dollar index, which measures the US currency against a basket of peers, was little changed at 101.14 but was still set for a 1.7% gain this month, its biggest monthly gain since June. The euro was a shade weaker at $1.1376, hovering near a two-month low against the dollar and on course for a 2% decline in September. Sterling was up a touch to $1.3260, but remained close to a three-month low of $1.3204 hit last week. Middle East Drives Markets Oil prices climbed more than 3% on Monday with Brent crude futures last above $107 a barrel, after US President Donald Trump rejected a peace deal with Iran to resolve their conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Energy supply risks and robust fundamentals in the US economy have heightened inflation concerns and prompted traders to price in a more hawkish Federal Reserve, while a relentless rise in long-end Treasury yields also supported the dollar. "The greenback could overshoot in the near term if energy market tensions persist and inflation risks continue to build," said Sim Moh Siong, FX strategist at OCBC. The bank's base case remains for a moderate dollar rally into year-end, he added. The market's focus is set to turn to US data releases as the week unfolds, with the PCE Index on Wednesday and nonfarm payrolls on Friday both expected to be consistent with further policy tightening. "Data could re-emerge as a primary driver for the dollar this week," said ING FX strategist Francesco Pesole. "After a good dose of hawkish Fedspeak and Brent staying supported above $100 per barrel, markets now need fresh evidence of US economic strength to solidify expectations of an October 28 rate hike." Currently, markets see a 65% chance of a quarter-point rate hike from the Fed at the October meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, after the central bank raised its interest rate at the September meeting. Other data for the week include China PMIs on Wednesday ahead of the week-long National Day holidays and euro zone inflation data on Friday. Yen Strengthens After Warning The yen rose to 156.75 per dollar after Japan's top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura said on Monday that markets should take at face value the "very clear" message Tokyo and Washington delivered last week on the yen. Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed last week that the two nations intend to strengthen cooperation to address yen weakness. Meanwhile, data on Monday showed Japan's service-sector inflation rose in

517%, near highest since 2004 By Wayne Cole and Amanda Cooper SYDNEY/LONDON, Sept 28 (Reuters) — Global stocks fell on Monday, as oil jumped on the stalemate in US-Iranian talks, ahead of a week already packed with macroeconomic risk, while the dollar headed for its best monthly performance since June. Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, claiming Tehran was desperate to make a deal. Trump said talks would continue this week, though Iran shows no sign of watering down its proposals. 16 a barrel, bringing gains so far this month to nearly 20%.

Oil futures are nearly 50% above where they were before the war started in late February, while refined product prices have surged even more. A dearth of refining capacity has lifted diesel prices to all-time highs, raising the risk that inflation will become embedded in pricing and wage decisions. Central banks have responded with a round of rate hikes, with the Reserve Bank of Australia likely to be the next to tighten when it meets on Tuesday. Markets now imply a 68% chance the Federal Reserve will hike for a second straight meeting in October, with around 90 basis points of tightening priced out to late next year.

At the same time, a run of strong US economic data has supported expectations for corporate earnings even as bond yields surge, so underpinning equities. "The global expansion appears to have entered a phase of broad-based strength rarely seen over the past two decades," said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan. "Amidst strong growth and firming perceptions of resilience to high energy prices, it is no surprise that rates are moving higher while equity prices remain close to record levels," he added. 4% gain this quarter.

7%. Bonds Fear Higher For Longer European equity markets were a bright spot. 4%, driven by classic defensive sectors — those that tend to be less influenced by concerns about economic growth — such as drugmakers, and by oil and gas stocks. 9% to a one-year trough, after a group of US lawmakers introduced legislation on Friday to bar the federal government from equipping sensitive government systems with Chinese-made components used to transmit data in AI data centres.

517%, near their highest since 2004, having climbed 27 bps just this month. Two-year yields have shot up 55 basis points in September, in their largest monthly rise since February 2023, in anticipation of a wave of Fed hikes. S. markets at least, remain well off the highs back in May, said Steven Major, global macro advisor at Tradition.

"Consequently, the upward movement in nominal Treasury yields is predominantly explained by higher real yields and shifting policy expectations, rather than a runaway inflation risk premium," he said. The US data calendar is packed with readings on inflation, GDP, manufacturing and jobs. 39. 0% so far this month.

The yen burst higher against the dollar on Monday, after Japan's top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura, in an interview with Reuters on Monday, delivered a stark warning to any would-be sellers, signalling his resolve to act against excessive falls in the currency. 83 yen. Meanwhile, gold fell 3% to $4,151 an ounce, having fallen nearly 7% this month as yields have risen. net/)