Bitcoin Broke Out While Gold, Stocks Struggled: It Feels Like 'The Upside Down'
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen said Thursday that Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) breakout feels like “the upside down,” with every other part of his macro thesis playing out except Bitcoin. Why the Macro Setup Made Sense to Cowen Cowen laid out his reasoning on his YouTube channel, pointing to rising oil prices that pushed the 10-year yield to 5.1% while the Fed falls behind the curve, unable to raise rates fast enough to match it. He flagged the 2-year yield, often used as a proxy for the neutral rate, which jumped 20 basis points in a single day to 4.9%. With the Fed funds rate at just 4%, Cowen argues policy sits roughly a full percentage point below where it needs to be to bring inflation under control. That combination of rising yields and a strengthening dollar has already stalled the S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY ), which topped in mid-August and hasn’t made a new high since. Gold and silver are struggling too, right in the mid-September to mid-October window Cowen expected weakness. Why Bitcoin Is the Outlier Everything lined up with Cowen’s thesis except Bitcoin, which broke out instead of falling. He compared the current setup to two prior instances: 2019 golden cross — dump followed by a r
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen said Thursday that Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) breakout feels like “the upside down,” with every other part of his macro thesis playing out except Bitcoin. 1% while the Fed falls behind the curve, unable to raise rates fast enough to match it. 9%. With the Fed funds rate at just 4%, Cowen argues policy sits roughly a full percentage point below where it needs to be to bring inflation under control.
That combination of rising yields and a strengthening dollar has already stalled the S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY ), which topped in mid-August and hasn’t made a new high since. Gold and silver are struggling too, right in the mid-September to mid-October window Cowen expected weakness. Why Bitcoin Is the Outlier Everything lined up with Cowen’s thesis except Bitcoin, which broke out instead of falling.
He compared the current setup to two prior instances: 2019 golden cross — dump followed by a rally 2023 golden cross — same pattern, dump then rally, mirroring what’s playing out now Bitcoin also closed the week above its 50-week moving average, a level it failed to hold during the false breakout of 2015, the only prior bear-market instance where Bitcoin set a higher high before eventually printing a new low. Cowen admitted his short-term credibility took a hit after previously assigning only a 35% probability that Bitcoin’s low was already in. With price now trading above the May high, he said the odds have clearly shifted in favor of the bulls.
What Cowen Is Watching Next Cowen said the key signal now is Bitcoin’s weekly close. Every additional close above the May high adds validation that the low is in. A drop back below $83,000, on the other hand, would set up the kind of Q4 pullback his original thesis anticipated, though not necessarily to a new low. He drew one cautionary parallel: silver’s 2012 breakout trade failed on a weekly closing basis before eventually resolving higher.
His bottom line comes down to a split in the data. On one side: Rising yields A stronger dollar A stalled S&P Struggling gold All four point toward caution. Bitcoin points the opposite way entirely. “Markets don’t have to make sense,” Cowen said, adding that he now defers to price action over his own framework until Bitcoin’s structure changes.
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