ROI — AI could help governments cut debt — but unevenly: Joachim Klement

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, an investment strategist for Panmure Liberum) By Joachim Klement LONDON, Sept 24 (Reuters) — AI promises to deliver significant productivity gains to individuals and businesses, but could it also help developed market governments reduce their budget deficits and pay down debt? It might. The estimated productivity gains from AI are highly uncertain. Chicago Federal Reserve Board economist Ezra Karger and his colleagues recently surveyed economists, superforecasters, AI experts, and the general public on the question. The median estimate for the boost to US gross domestic product (GDP) growth from AI was around 0.5 percentage point per year through 2031. Economists, perhaps unsurprisingly, are much more conservative than the other groups, expecting only a 0.1 percentage point boost annually over the next five years. But one thing everyone can agree on is that if productivity increases, GDP growth will rise. This can happen through higher corporate profits as businesses reduce costs or increase output. Or it could happen through higher real wages if workers become more productive, increasing their bargaining power and ability to de