US DATA: Business Inflation Expectations Nudge To Post Iran War Highs

The Atlanta Fed's Business Inflation Expectations survey saw 1Y ahead expectations for unit costs increase to technically the highest since mid-2025 although they remain off recent highs seen after the tariff announcements earlier in 2025 and certainly below those in 2022. Separately, labor plans are seen as steady. * Firms' 1Y inflation expectations (defined as the mean expected changed in unit costs) increased two tenths to 2.37% in September, technically poking above the 2.36% from May for its highest since Jun 2025. * It had previously seen a recent low of 1.94% in Feb (lowest since Dec 2020) before the start of the US-Iran war whilst for longer context, it previously peaked at 2.76% in Apr 2025 after tariff announcements and 3.8% in Mar-Apr 2022. * The quarterly question on long-term inflation expectations 5-10Y ahead was unchanged at 2.8% meanwhile, holding to the pre-pandemic average. * A review of the labor-focused special question: "Overall, most firms indicated that they anticipate either little to no changing in staffing or plan to increase levels over the next year. When looking at the growth rates in employment across sectors, manufacturing and corporate services antic