US NATGAS: US Natgas Weather Update - Afternoon Sep 23

* The latest GFS shows more moderate temperatures across the board in the next two weeks: the 6-10d CDD count fell from 38 CDD 14h ago to ~31 CDD in the latest run, yet remains above average by ~5 CDD. Cooling demand on the Gulf Coast and Permian appear to have dropped off in the latest run, trending to the normal through the first week of October. * In the 11-14d period, the count is now ~1.5 CDD below the average, driven primarily by disappearing cooling demand in the Northeast and Midwest. Cooling demand along the West Coast also looks more subdued according to the latest run. * Heating demand across the L48 is starting to show up in the forecast, with the HDD count in the 11-14d period at ~6 HDD above the normal: NYC HDD on October 7th could reach 11. * NHC: The low-pressure system off the coast of Cabo Verde has increased its chance of cyclone formation in the next seven days to 40%, but is expected to be beaten by wind shear by the weekend