FOREX: USDCHF Reapproaches 0.8264 Cycle Highs Ahead Of SNB
* Firm rhetoric from Iran around the middle east conflict and post-Fed enthusiasm has sprung USDCHF back towards 0.8264 cycle highs on Wednesday. A break above would mean the highest levels since May 2025 and we highlight the top of the bull channel at 0.8309 as the next target for the move. * Tomorrow's SNB meeting (our preview: ) will be the next key determinant behind the current CHF funding narrative remaining in play. FX communications should headline right after the likely policy rate hold at 0%. A paring from the current "if necessary, increased willingness to intervene", back to a more neutral "willing to be active as necessary" would imply that the SNB is taking account of the recently weaker CHF valuations, and would marginally take away from the bank's dovish pressure on the franc. * Chairman Schlegel's opening press conference remarks on the monetary policy outlook have previously contained meaningful steers when the bank wanted to remain clear of including these in the official press statement. In June, Schlegel did not tilt directionally in terms of the rates outlook in these comments, and took account of CHF exchange rate movements, rationalizing the bank's official
8264 cycle highs on Wednesday. 8309 as the next target for the move. * Tomorrow's SNB meeting (our preview: ) will be the next key determinant behind the current CHF funding narrative remaining in play. FX communications should headline right after the likely policy rate hold at 0%.
A paring from the current "if necessary, increased willingness to intervene", back to a more neutral "willing to be active as necessary" would imply that the SNB is taking account of the recently weaker CHF valuations, and would marginally take away from the bank's dovish pressure on the franc. * Chairman Schlegel's opening press conference remarks on the monetary policy outlook have previously contained meaningful steers when the bank wanted to remain clear of including these in the official press statement.
In June, Schlegel did not tilt directionally in terms of the rates outlook in these comments, and took account of CHF exchange rate movements, rationalizing the bank's official communications.