Cocoa Futures at Near 1-Week High

Cocoa futures rose toward $5,500 per tonne, the highest level in nearly a week, supported by short covering as forecasts for dry conditions in top grower Côte d’Ivoire raised concerns about the 2026/27 crop. Early surveys also pointed to below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees, signalling a weaker outlook for the main harvest, which began this month. These concerns come despite a large global surplus in 2025/26 that has kept near-term supplies ample, with inventories remaining at a two-year high of 3.43 million bags. However, the medium-term outlook is more uncertain, with estimates for 2026/27 pointing to weaker crops across West Africa due to weather risks. Côte d’Ivoire’s output is expected to fall about 20% to 1.75 million tonnes, while Ghana’s is forecast to decline 13% to 650,000 tonnes. These risks could be compounded by an unusually strong El Niño, potentially intensifying dry Harmattan winds from around November.