US BONDS: Aggressive Fed front loading vs breakevens
* Today's global rates sell-off is driving US policy rates to reprice higher, with the implied SFRZ7 rate climbing to ~4.85%. * Such aggressive front-loading of Fed tightening suggests risks could be increasingly skewed toward a further moderation of the inflation risk premium. At ~2.36%, 5-year inflation breakevens are just off this week's lows but remain well below this month's highs nearer 2.50%. * Consequently, exogenous energy risks may increasingly start to play out closer to the front end of the curve rather than unanchoring longer-term expectations. Finance LP, MNI
85%. * Such aggressive front-loading of Fed tightening suggests risks could be increasingly skewed toward a further moderation of the inflation risk premium. 50%. * Consequently, exogenous energy risks may increasingly start to play out closer to the front end of the curve rather than unanchoring longer-term expectations.
Finance LP, MNI