US NATGAS: US-China Talks on Energy This Week: US Needs LNG Deal More Than China
Xi Jinping arrives in Washington today September 23rd to discuss reviving US-China LNG trade, which has effectively collapsed since Beijing imposed a 15% tariff in February 2025, cutting US LNG shipments to China from 64 vessels in 2024 to zero in 2025, wrote Oil Price * A tariff removal could reopen a market once worth $6.2 billion annually, but China has spent the tariff years building durable supply relationships with Australia, Southeast Asia, Russia, and Canada. With demand forecasts cut and renewables expanding, the US stands to recover far less than the headline number suggests, while 24.5 MTPA of USGC capacity sits without a long-term buyer. * China Gas Holdings signed a 20-year deal with Venture Global on September 14th for 0.5 MTPA starting in 2030, but the deal was signed with the tariff still in force, sets no tariff terms, and covers less than 1% of China's total 2025 LNG imports of 68.43 million tons. * Chinese companies already hold close to 25 MTPA of US LNG offtake under contracts signed since 2018, fifty times the volume of the new China Gas deal, with buyers mostly reselling US cargoes into Europe and Asia rather than paying the tariff to bring them home. * Three
2 billion annually, but China has spent the tariff years building durable supply relationships with Australia, Southeast Asia, Russia, and Canada. 5 MTPA of USGC capacity sits without a long-term buyer. 43 million tons. * Chinese companies already hold close to 25 MTPA of US LNG offtake under contracts signed since 2018, fifty times the volume of the new China Gas deal, with buyers mostly reselling US cargoes into Europe and Asia rather than paying the tariff to bring them home.
43 million tons already a three-year low driven by a shift toward piped gas and renewables. 5 MTPA of Gulf Coast LNG capacity now under construction has no long-term buyer, underscoring why Washington may need this deal more than Beijing does.