Bitcoin Could Deliver '3-5x Rather Than Another 10x' This Cycle, Analyst Says
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said Tuesday that this Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) bull cycle likely delivers 3-5x gains rather than another 10x parabolic run. Why Ju Sees a Different Cycle Playing Out Ki Young Ju posted on X that Bitcoin’s growing size and institutional ownership are dampening both the explosive rallies and the 80% crashes retail-driven cycles used to produce. He pointed to the PnL Index, which tracks aggregate holder profitability, as proof, noting that cycle tops and bottoms now form at higher profitability levels than before. This cycle’s MVRV ratio never dropped below 1, meaning holders as a whole stayed above their average cost basis even at the lows. Ju flagged three supporting signals: Rising realized cap — pointing to fresh capital inflows OG whales — have stopped selling Futures whales — built large long positions near the bottom “Giving up the 10x parabola also means giving up the 80% crash,” Ju wrote, “and that is exactly what invites patient, long-horizon capital instead of hot money.” Why September’s Streak Matters Too CoinDesk reported Wednesday that Bitcoin is on track for a rare three-month winning streak from July through September, a pattern seen only once
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said Tuesday that this Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) bull cycle likely delivers 3-5x gains rather than another 10x parabolic run. Why Ju Sees a Different Cycle Playing Out Ki Young Ju posted on X that Bitcoin’s growing size and institutional ownership are dampening both the explosive rallies and the 80% crashes retail-driven cycles used to produce. He pointed to the PnL Index, which tracks aggregate holder profitability, as proof, noting that cycle tops and bottoms now form at higher profitability levels than before. This cycle’s MVRV ratio never dropped below 1, meaning holders as a whole stayed above their average cost basis even at the lows.
” Why September’s Streak Matters Too CoinDesk reported Wednesday that Bitcoin is on track for a rare three-month winning streak from July through September, a pattern seen only once before in 2012. 9% higher as of writing. 4% those same three months, followed by a red October and then a 165-day rally that carried Bitcoin over 2,000% higher into April 2013. Why Analysts Are Skeptical of a Repeat Giottus CEO Vikram Subburaj told CoinDesk that Bitcoin’s market structure has changed entirely since 2012, when a small pool of buyers could move a thinly traded asset.
Today, the market instead runs on institutional capital, regulated spot ETFs, and deep derivatives liquidity. 5 billion since August, according to SoSoValue. Nansen senior research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard added that Bitcoin has broadly stuck to its four-year cycle pattern, sometimes early, sometimes late. Even so, he would not rule out an October pullback, though not necessarily to new lows.
Meanwhile, Bitget Wallet research lead Lacie Zhang, pointed to a more useful signal: whether spot ETF inflows stay positive once the current short squeeze fades. 75% to 4%, with another possible increase this year, as the main macro headwind working against continued institutional buying. Read Also: Bitcoin At $80,000 Today Vs. Bitcoin At $80,000 in May: 'Very Different,' Says This Analyst Photo via Shutterstock