SOUTH AFRICA: SARB's QPM Has Policy Rate Broadly Stable Through Year-End

Full run of highlights from the policy statement: * The forecast from our Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) has the policy rate broadly stable through the remainder of this year. * Our baseline forecast has the major central banks raising rates by about half a percentage point, between this year and next. * Our scenario doubled that, taking the increase to a full percentage point. This causes rand depreciation, which lifts inflation. The model responds with a tighter policy stance, with rates about one hike above the baseline path and slower cuts subsequently. * We also looked at a scenario with higher inflation expectations and wage increases. This also showed a tighter policy stance, with between one and two hikes above the baseline peak, and rates staying higher for longer. * Our decisions will continue to be taken on a meeting-by-meeting basis, with careful attention to the outlook, data outcomes, and the balance of risks to the forecast. Click here: nts/monetary-policy-statements/2026/september to see the full release.