ZAR: Initial Post-SARB ZAR Strength Quickly Reverses
* Slight ZAR strength in the immediate aftermath of the rate decision, as a minority of analysts (3 out of 21 surveyed ) had been expecting a cut. However, the move was short-lived and has already reversed. Moreover, the USDZAR move represented only a mere retracement of today's earlier rally, with spot around 1.15% higher on the day at the time of typing. * The upward revisions to the SARB's CPI forecasts were expected, reflecting the renewed surge in oil prices since the previous meeting. The central bank raised its oil price assumptions to $90/bbl for 2026, from $82 previously, and $80/bbl for next year, up from $75 previously. * More broadly, we note that the sell-off in gold has contributed to ZAR weakness today, alongside persistent post-Fed USD strength. From a technical perspective, we flag 16.4091 (Sept 16 high) as immediate resistance for USDZAR, followed by 16.5327 (Aug 4 high).
* Slight ZAR strength in the immediate aftermath of the rate decision, as a minority of analysts (3 out of 21 surveyed ) had been expecting a cut. However, the move was short-lived and has already reversed. 15% higher on the day at the time of typing. * The upward revisions to the SARB's CPI forecasts were expected, reflecting the renewed surge in oil prices since the previous meeting.
The central bank raised its oil price assumptions to $90/bbl for 2026, from $82 previously, and $80/bbl for next year, up from $75 previously. * More broadly, we note that the sell-off in gold has contributed to ZAR weakness today, alongside persistent post-Fed USD strength. 5327 (Aug 4 high).