SOUTH AFRICA: SARB Press Conference Begins Shortly, 25bp Hike Expected
* The SARB will announce its decision on interest rates during a press conference scheduled to start at 14:00BST (15:00SAST). Per the Bloomberg survey, 19 out of 22 analysts expect the central bank to raise the repo rate by 25bps to 7.25%, and this is also our bias. * In July, a narrow majority of 4 out of 6 members forced an unexpected pause. Mounting upside risks to the inflation outlook since then necessitates a show of commitment, with the credibility of the new +3% Y/Y target at stake. Although inflation has now pulled back from cyclical highs, inflation expectations have moderated somewhat, and GDP contracted in 2Q26, the balance of risks remains tilted to the upside. * See our full preview of the meeting, with analyst views, here: * Livestream to the press conference here
* The SARB will announce its decision on interest rates during a press conference scheduled to start at 14:00BST (15:00SAST). 25%, and this is also our bias. * In July, a narrow majority of 4 out of 6 members forced an unexpected pause. Mounting upside risks to the inflation outlook since then necessitates a show of commitment, with the credibility of the new +3% Y/Y target at stake.
Although inflation has now pulled back from cyclical highs, inflation expectations have moderated somewhat, and GDP contracted in 2Q26, the balance of risks remains tilted to the upside. * See our full preview of the meeting, with analyst views, here: * Livestream to the press conference here