BRAZIL: Lula Rails Against 'Enemies Of Democracy' As Polls Continue To Show Tie
As noted earlier (BRAZIL: Lula and Bolsonaro Remain Tied in Run-Off Scenario, BCB MPR Tomorrow: cenario-bcb-mpr-tomorrow-1790160374932), the latest opinion poll: ahead-of-brazil-presidential-voteshows incumbent President Luiz Incio Lula da Silva and challenger Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro locked in a statistical tie. * In the Lula vs Bolsonaro hypothetical second-round polls from AtlasIntel to date, the two have been within the +/-1pp margin of error every week since the start of September. * The chances of the election being decided in the first round on 4 October are minimal. A candidate is required to win 50%+1 of the first round vote to avoid a run-off. With a number of smaller party candidates contesting the election (polling a combined ~15%), neither Lula and his centre-left Workers' Party (PT) nor Bolsonaro and his right-wing populist Liberal Party (PL) are likely to reach the threshold. * Delivering the traditional opening address from the President of Brazil at the UNGA on 22 Sep, Lula explicitly warned of foreign interference in elections, saying "We will not allow the enemies of democracy, whether domestic or foreign, to undermine popular will." * The Lula administration has be
As noted earlier (BRAZIL: Lula and Bolsonaro Remain Tied in Run-Off Scenario, BCB MPR Tomorrow: cenario-bcb-mpr-tomorrow-1790160374932), the latest opinion poll: ahead-of-brazil-presidential-voteshows incumbent President Luiz Incio Lula da Silva and challenger Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro locked in a statistical tie. * In the Lula vs Bolsonaro hypothetical second-round polls from AtlasIntel to date, the two have been within the +/-1pp margin of error every week since the start of September. * The chances of the election being decided in the first round on 4 October are minimal.
A candidate is required to win 50%+1 of the first round vote to avoid a run-off. With a number of smaller party candidates contesting the election (polling a combined ~15%), neither Lula and his centre-left Workers' Party (PT) nor Bolsonaro and his right-wing populist Liberal Party (PL) are likely to reach the threshold. " * The Lula administration has been wary that the US may look to bolster Bolsonaro's campaign given the previous support President Donald Trump afforded: Flavio's father, erstwhile President Jair Bolsonaro amid his trial and eventual conviction.
* Despite a combative relationship and evident strain, Trump and Lula have pledged: work together, with talks continuing: -while-trade-talks-continue-lula-says-2026-09-21/ on tariffs imposed by the White House. Chart 1. Hypothetical Second-Round Presidential Election Opinion Polling, % Source: AtlasIntel, MNI