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BRAZIL: Lula and Bolsonaro Remain Tied in Run-Off Scenario, BCB MPR Tomorrow

* After yesterday's Copom minutes presented few surprises, with the board striking a slightly more dovish tone on current economic conditions, but remaining concerned about unanchored inflation expectations, USDBRL ended the session little changed, edging below the 5.10 handle. The move left the pair just above MTD lows at 5.0703 and narrowed the gap to key short-term support at 5.0483, the Jul 22 low. However, with post-Fed dollar strength continuing today, resistance to watch is at 5.2483, the Aug 14 high. * No major macro data are due today, with just FGV IPC-S CPI stats crossing at 1200BST/0700ET. Focus for the remainder of the week will be on the BCB MPR tomorrow and IPCA-15 inflation stats on Friday. The MPR is unlikely to provide any major shift in communications either, with the Copom maintaining its data dependent approach. While this keeps the door open to a further cut in November, the scope for further easing will stay constrained by external uncertainties and the outcome of the election. * On that, latest polls continue to show a neck-and-neck race, with today's AtlasIntel poll for Bloomberg putting Lula on 47.7% in a run-off, vs. 47.4% for Bolsonaro, little changed fr

10 handle. 0483, the Jul 22 low. 2483, the Aug 14 high. * No major macro data are due today, with just FGV IPC-S CPI stats crossing at 1200BST/0700ET.

Focus for the remainder of the week will be on the BCB MPR tomorrow and IPCA-15 inflation stats on Friday. The MPR is unlikely to provide any major shift in communications either, with the Copom maintaining its data dependent approach. While this keeps the door open to a further cut in November, the scope for further easing will stay constrained by external uncertainties and the outcome of the election. 7% in a run-off, vs.

4% for Bolsonaro, little changed from last week. 8% vs. 4% for Bolsonaro, according to the poll. * According to latest data on Polymarket, Bolsonaro has a 59% implied probability of winning, up from 29% in mid-August, vs.

41% for Lula.