SOUTH AFRICA: Inflation Data Eyed Ahead Of SARB Rate Decision
Statistics SA will release August CPI data at 09:00BST/10:00SAST, hours ahead of the SARB's monetary policy decision. Bloomberg consensus looks for an uptick in headline inflation to +4.5% Y/Y from +4.3% prior against a steady core inflation rate of +4.2% Y/Y. * Goldman Sachs write that on their model projections, headline inflation likely rose to +4.5 Y/Y, while core inflation was steady at +4.2% Y/Y in August. Among non-core factors, they estimate that fuel inflation rose from +20.6% Y/Y to +22.6% Y/Y and that food inflation remained roughly stable at +0.8% Y/Y. They also pencil in a 1% M/M follow-on rise in electricity tariffs, implying an increase in annual terms from +8.4% Y/Y to +9.4% Y/Y. Among core factors, their narrow measures of demand-sensitive core goods and services inflation both moderated sharply in July relative to August, and they assume a modest sequential acceleration in August. Goods inflation continues to run negative in annual terms, while services inflation rose sharply in recent months but is showing signs of stabilizing. * Nedbank see headline inflation at +4.3% Y/Y, unchanged from July, due to moderation in transport costs stemming from the decline in fue
Statistics SA will release August CPI data at 09:00BST/10:00SAST, hours ahead of the SARB's monetary policy decision. 2% Y/Y. 2% Y/Y in August. 8% Y/Y.
4% Y/Y. Among core factors, their narrow measures of demand-sensitive core goods and services inflation both moderated sharply in July relative to August, and they assume a modest sequential acceleration in August. Goods inflation continues to run negative in annual terms, while services inflation rose sharply in recent months but is showing signs of stabilizing. 3% Y/Y, unchanged from July, due to moderation in transport costs stemming from the decline in fuel prices.
5% appreciation in the rand against the US dollar. 2% Y/Y in August. 7% Y/Y, contained by lower global food prices, strong domestic agricultural output, and the continued normalisation of meat prices as the effects of the recent foot-and-mouth disease outbreak fade. This will partly offset elevated inflation for housing and utilities.
In addition, August is a light survey month, implying limited price changes across most other categories. 1%.