UK DATA: Brightmine Median Pay Award Steady at 3%; Stability Seen Ahead in 2027
Looking ahead to 2027, Brightmine's pay awards forecast survey found that a "median 3% pay award [is expected] over the next 12 months, with 71% of predicted awards between 3% and 4% [...] Two-thirds (66%) of organisations cite affordability as a downward pressure on pay awards, while 37% point to higher employer National Insurance costs." Inflation and cost of living (reported by 64%), industry-wide pay increases (52%) and minimum wage increases (47%) are highlighted as upward pressures. The BOE will be wary of the number of employers citing inflation and cost of living being a factor in consideration (albeit this is alway the case to some extent) but the 3% pay award is as yet showing little sign of second round effects. * Elsewhere in the survey, workforce planning is also being affected, "Almost a quarter (24%) expect to reduce hiring over the next 12 months, while 17% expect to cut bonus spending." * "Pay awards remain stagnant, and that very much looks to be the story of 2027. Brightmine data shows pay growth settling at 3%, and there is very little reason for that to shift significantly in the medium term.", the press release comments. Brightmine median pay awards in the thr
" Inflation and cost of living (reported by 64%), industry-wide pay increases (52%) and minimum wage increases (47%) are highlighted as upward pressures. The BOE will be wary of the number of employers citing inflation and cost of living being a factor in consideration (albeit this is alway the case to some extent) but the 3% pay award is as yet showing little sign of second round effects. " * "Pay awards remain stagnant, and that very much looks to be the story of 2027. ", the press release comments.
2% initial. 2%). Looking ahead to 2027, a Brightmine survey pointed to continued stability around this 3% handle ahead, with pay awards expected to remain tightly clustered in the 3-4% range. 2% though).
The upper quartile fell back after a surprising jump last month, Brightmine had noted that a small sample size could have impacted the rise last month but revisions have muted this somewhat. 0% since January. * Still warranting some concern, however, Brightmine's matched sample analysis shows "Compared with the pay awards received by the same employees a year ago, 37% are higher [30% Jul], 37% are unchanged [35% Jul]. The remaining 26% are worth less" (35% Jul).
9%. 5% cons). * The Jun-Aug data includes 45 pay awards implemented between 1 Jun - 31 Aug 2026, covering over 755,000 UK employees. The 2027 pay forecast survey was conducted in August and September 2026, and includes responses from 261 organisations, covering around 665,000 employees.