AUSTRALIA: Payback Expected For July’s Weak Employment Outcome, Data Volatile
August jobs print on Thursday and are expected to unwind July's loss of 15.8k rising 20k with the unemployment and participation rates holding steady at 4.5% and 66.9% respectively. The data are volatile and so 3-month averages are needed to gauge the trend. They have signalled a gradual easing in labour market conditions, which the RBA has welcomed in its fight to return inflation to target. * Governor Bullock said this week that the current unemployment rate at 4.5% is still a "bit tight" but if it edged towards 5%, it could be high enough to ease price pressures. * There is likely to be some payback for July's holiday-impacted 15.8k decline in employment and analyst estimates on Bloomberg are between +10k and +47k with most +15 to +30k. Of the four large domestic banks, ANZ and CBA are below consensus forecasting +15k, NAB is in line at 20k, while Westpac's 30k is higher. * An outcome in line with consensus would see 3-month average job gains ease to 28.1k from 34.2k. Westpac's forecast brings it to 31.5k but it still expects hiring to slow through H2. * Unemployment rate projections are between 4.4% and 4.6% with the vast majority of expectations at 4.5%, including ANZ, CBA and
9% respectively. The data are volatile and so 3-month averages are needed to gauge the trend. They have signalled a gradual easing in labour market conditions, which the RBA has welcomed in its fight to return inflation to target. 5% is still a "bit tight" but if it edged towards 5%, it could be high enough to ease price pressures.
8k decline in employment and analyst estimates on Bloomberg are between +10k and +47k with most +15 to +30k. Of the four large domestic banks, ANZ and CBA are below consensus forecasting +15k, NAB is in line at 20k, while Westpac's 30k is higher. 2k. 5k but it still expects hiring to slow through H2.
5%, including ANZ, CBA and Westpac. 43%, only a small change is needed for a lower rate. * Apart from the headline employment/unemployment data, it will be important to monitor other indicators which the RBA looks at, including youth unemployment and underemployment rates and hours worked. 1pp in July.