AUSTRALIA DATA: Q3 Cost/Prices Ease On Q2 But Rise In September, Confidence Weak
While the preliminary September S&P Global composite PMI eased to 50.8 from 52.7, there was a pickup in Q3 signalling GDP growth may have improved in the quarter. Q3 averaged 52.2 up from Q2's 49.8, which was impacted by geopolitical uncertainty and jump in fuel prices. However, Q3 services PMI was also higher than Q1 and Q4 signalling resilience. Cost growth rose to its highest for Q3 driven by services but importantly selling price inflation also increased implying increased cost pass through but both measures are below Q2's highs. The RBA will continue to watch second-round effects from higher fuel costs as it worries upside inflation risks are "materialising". The market has a 86% chance of hike on 29 September. Australia S&P Global services PMI vs real GDP q/q% Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P./ABS * The growth outlook deteriorated further with business confidence falling to its softest in 3 months. Firms are pessimistic with the index running below the historical average due to elevated costs, "market demand and customer retention" worries. * Flash September services PMI moderated to 51.4 from 53.2, lowest since June, still consistent with growth in the sector.
7, there was a pickup in Q3 signalling GDP growth may have improved in the quarter. 8, which was impacted by geopolitical uncertainty and jump in fuel prices. However, Q3 services PMI was also higher than Q1 and Q4 signalling resilience. Cost growth rose to its highest for Q3 driven by services but importantly selling price inflation also increased implying increased cost pass through but both measures are below Q2's highs.
The RBA will continue to watch second-round effects from higher fuel costs as it worries upside inflation risks are "materialising". The market has a 86% chance of hike on 29 September. /ABS * The growth outlook deteriorated further with business confidence falling to its softest in 3 months. Firms are pessimistic with the index running below the historical average due to elevated costs, "market demand and customer retention" worries.
2, lowest since June, still consistent with growth in the sector. 1. 3, weakest since December 2024, after recording 52s in both July and August. The deterioration was due to declining export orders.
The Q3 average though was in line with moderate growth seen through 2026. * Manufacturing reported an increase in supply-chain disruptions. * The PMIs showed a slight reduction in employment across sectors even though outstanding business increased.