BONDS: NZGBS: Steady Start, Watching Oil, RBNZ Oct OIS Nears 75% Priced

NZGB yields track little changed in the first part of Wednesday trade. The 2yr was last near 3.85%, the 10yr just above 4.93%. From US trade Tuesday, Treasuries bounced off session lows to mildly higher after Trump headline of "very productive" meeting between US & Iran officials. Benchmark yields still ended a little higher, the 10yr to 4.96% (up around 1bps for the session). US Tsy futures are higher in earlier Wednesday trade (TYZ6 to 106-03+, +03+), likely aided by a weaker WTI open (off over 1%) on Hormuz/returning Saudi supply hopes. * For the 2yr NZGB yield, recent highs rest close to 3.965%, while the 20-day EMA is near 3.76%, for the 10yr mid Sep highs were close to 5.05% (20-day EMA rests near 4.89%). * For the RBNZ outlook, we saw an uptick in OIS implied pricing yesterday. For the Oct policy meeting, hike odds track around 72% (this time yesterday we were sub 65%). The implied OIS rate for the Feb 2027 meeting is 3.33% against the current rate of 2.75%. * To recap from yesterday, RBNZ Governor Breman has observed that current higher oil prices are likely to mean that NZ inflation will be above its September forecast in the near-term. Ahead of the 28 October decision,.