US fuel market splits as EV uptake creates two-tier system

) By Gavin Maguire LITTLETON, Colorado, Sept 22 (Reuters) — The steady rise in use of electric vehicles across the US is creating a two-tiered fuel market, splitting motorists between those whose costs are dictated by global oil markets and those whose bills are determined by local electricity prices. As a result, geography is becoming an increasingly important determinant of transportation costs and of who captures the economic benefits of the energy transition.

One Country, Two Fuel Markets It remains difficult to compare the costs of the two different fuel systems for most US passenger cars, with EV costs assessed in kilowatt-hours while gasoline costs are in US dollars per gallon. However, energy intelligence platform Orennia has recently published a list of prices by US state of the cost of charging an EV converted into dollars per gallon. 43 a gallon, data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) shows. The Orennia conversion uses the overnight residential cost for electricity, as a majority of US EVs are charged at home, and compares two similarly-sized cars — the 2025 Hyundai Elantra and the 2025 Hyundai Ioniq 6.

When the recharging cost is compared to the current cost of gasoline in the same states, it is evident that American drivers inhabit two distinct fuel economies that can significantly impact their overall cost of living. One group remains exposed to OPEC decisions, refinery outages, geopolitical shocks and local fuel inventory levels. The other depends increasingly on utility rate structures, electricity generation mixes and state energy policies. 45 a gallon, Orennia's data shows.

14 a gallon. 30 spread between the most expensive and cheapest EV charging states underscores the wide range in charging costs across the country. 56 a gallon, and 40 states have an average charging cost of less than the equivalent of $2 a gallon. 08 a gallon, according to the latest data from AAA.

92 a gallon. 00 a gallon. 43 a gallon, which is 180% more than the average cost to recharge a mid-sized EV. Global Ties The narrower price spread between the cheapest and most expensive gasoline markets compared to the span in EV charging costs highlights the greater collective exposure of US gasoline consumers to global markets.

Certainly there are some key regional trends in the US fuel market, with much of the West Coast among the most expensive while the Gulf Coast has some of the cheapest, helped by proximity to refining capacity and energy production. But while state-level differences exist, gasoline prices broadly move together because they are tied to the same underlying oil market. When crude rallies, motorists from Arizona to Wisconsin generally feel the impact. The gasoline market remains largely national and increasingly global.

Electricity Is Local Instead of a broad national pattern, electricity prices cluster around regional utility structures. 45 per gallon equivalent, with California close behind. Hawaii's isolated grid makes generation more expensive than on the mainland, while California's stretched infrastructure, wildfire mitigation measures and rate policy structures have resulted in above-average utility costs for years. Several New England states, including Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine and Rhode Island, also rank among the most expensive.

10 per gallon equivalent. Those differences are enormous, and drastically change the appeal of EVs depending on where you live. A driver recharging an EV in Hawaii faces fuel costs more than three times higher than a driver in Louisiana. Few consumers realize that the cost of operating the same vehicle can vary so widely within the same country.

Yet EVs currently beat gasoline everywhere in terms of refueling costs. Even in Hawaii, where electricity costs are highest, the equivalent cost of driving an EV is substantially lower than buying regular gasoline. California's drivers pay some of the highest prices for both electricity and gasoline. Yet even there EV owners maintain a significant operating-cost advantage.

Future Control The implications of sharply lower charging costs compared to fueling costs extend beyond household bills. For decades, transportation costs in the US were largely shaped by forces far beyond the control of most consumers or state governments. Crude oil prices, refinery capacity, fuel inventories and geopolitical events were the primary drivers of what motorists paid to fill up. As EV adoption expands, utilities, power generators and state regulators are assuming a growing role in determining transportation costs as well.

Residential electricity rates, time-of-use pricing plans and investments in power infrastructure will increasingly influence how much drivers pay to travel each mile. In effect, transportation costs are becoming linked not only to global energy markets but also to local power markets. That shift will create new regional winners and losers. Drivers in states with abundant low-cost electricity could enjoy a growing cost advantage over motorists elsewhere, while residents of states with persistently high power prices may see fewer economic benefits from switching to electric vehicles.

In that sense, the transition from gasoline to electricity is not simply changing the type of fuel that powers the nation's cars. It is also changing who determines the price of mobility. As more Americans switch to electric vehicles, the gap between those two systems is likely to become increasingly important, making geography an ever larger factor in who benefits most from the energy transition. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

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