‘Septemberphobia’ Could Give Way to a Big October Rally Despite Trump Uncertainty: Market Strategist Points to S&P 500’s Best Midterm Month
The S&P 500 averages a 3.0% return in October during midterm election years, making it the “best month” for stocks. Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, uses this historical midterm seasonality to forecast a rally, overriding investor fear and election noise surrounding President Donald Trump. The Historical Midterm Catalyst According to data spanning 1950 to 2025, the S&P 500 posts higher returns in October during midterm years 73.7% of the time. Detrick stated that the “best month of the year in a midterm year is October.” He noted that November follows closely behind as a catalyst for market growth. Calling it “the second best month of the year,” Detrick shared data showing November averages a 2.7% return in midterm years, trading higher 78.9% of the time. The best month of the year in a midterm year is October. The second best month of the year in a midterm year is November. Almost there. pic.twitter.com/O1t0RkLT6T — Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) September 21, 2026 Read Also: S&P 500 Has Delivered ‘Muted Returns’ During Fed Cycles With More Than 5 Rate Hikes, Says Ryan Detrick Confronting ‘Septemberphobia’ This seasonal fourth-quarter forecast arrives amid
0% return in October during midterm election years, making it the “best month” for stocks. Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, uses this historical midterm seasonality to forecast a rally, overriding investor fear and election noise surrounding President Donald Trump. 7% of the time. ” He noted that November follows closely behind as a catalyst for market growth.
9% of the time. The best month of the year in a midterm year is October. The second best month of the year in a midterm year is November. Almost there.
com/O1t0RkLT6T — Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) September 21, 2026 Read Also: S&P 500 Has Delivered ‘Muted Returns’ During Fed Cycles With More Than 5 Rate Hikes, Says Ryan Detrick Confronting ‘Septemberphobia’ This seasonal fourth-quarter forecast arrives amid a period of elevated market anxiety. Detrick observed that “ Septemberphobia is real,” pointing to technical indicators such as longtime bulls cutting targets, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) showing the most bears since Liberation Day, and the NAAIM Exposure Index dropping 30% over three weeks. Additionally, a market sentiment gauge recently registered a “Fear” level of 29 out of 100.
com/QLJBpqQ5WI — Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) September 21, 2026 Technical Resilience Despite the fear, the S&P 500 has demonstrated stability. ” He noted that the index avoided a single 1% drop in September, nor did it gain or lose 1% for a full week for four consecutive weeks. The index continues holding above its early June peak and the upward-sloping 20-week moving average. Don't short a dull market?
They told us all month how bearish September is, yet we haven't seen a single 1% drop and the S&P 500 hasn't gained or lost 1% for the full week for four weeks in a row. Holding above the early June peak and now the upward sloping 20-wk. com/St4SrF6tAB — Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) September 21, 2026 While market breadth weakened recently, Detrick pointed out a technical positive: breadth peaked simultaneously with price, whereas major market peaks typically see breadth peak well before price. As nearly everyone has noted, breadth has been weak the past month or so.
@scottcharts noted one positive is breadth peaked with price this time. Remember, at major peaks you see breadth peak well before price. com/dg0isDovhV — Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) September 21, 2026 How Has the Index Performed? 36%.
Maintaining his firm’s technical forecast, Detrick stated, “Our call for a choppy to weak first half of September, then a big rally the second half hasn’t been a popular call. ” On Friday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY ) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed higher. 45. 88.
61%. Read Also: Stock Market Today: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Futures Gain as Trump Issues Fresh Warning to Iran — MRVL, AAPL, ACN in Focus Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published editors. Photo courtesy: Shutterstock