NHC: Tropical Storm Odalys, Polo active; new depression likely near Hawaii

The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued its 500 AM PDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Tropical Weather Outlook for the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude. Active systems include Tropical Storm Odalys, which is well west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and Tropical Storm Polo, which is a few hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. East-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with the remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located several hundred miles to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.

Conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by the middle to latter portion of this week, and a tropical depression is likely to form by then to the south or southeast of the Hawaiian Islands as the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. Formation chance through 48 hours is low at 20 percent. Formation chance through 7 days is high at 80 percent. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, an area of low pressure could form in a few days.

Environmental conditions are expected to support gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend as the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours is low at 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days is medium at 40 percent. Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Polo are issued under WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and AWIPS header MIATCPEP2, while Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.