Oil flows increase but data conflicting on supply from Middle East
Conflicting reports on Middle East oil supply are creating uncertainty, with some indicating increased flows while others show disruptions. Admiral Brad Cooper stated that crude oil, cargo, and LNG volumes are higher than in the past six months, despite ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz with transponders off. Figures from Kpler show Saudi exports recovered to over 4 million bpd in September after slumping to 2.4 million bpd in August, and JPMorgan analysts noted an increase in oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz.
(Adds blog post) Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at. More Oil Is Flowing, Depending On Who You Ask It's been an upbeat start to the week in Asia thanks in part to a drop in oil prices amid, sometimes conflicting, reports of increased supply out of the Middle East. Brent had started higher after the Houthis attacked the capital of Saudi Arabia over the weekend, but soon slipped 2% on hopes the kingdom would quickly restore some flows through its East-West pipeline.
Admiral Brad Cooper, head of US Central Command, on the weekend said the volume of crude oil, cargo, and liquefied natural gas in the past two weeks was higher than at any point in the past six months. Ships were being escorted by the US military but running the Strait of Hormuz with their transponders off, making it hard to confirm Cooper's assessment. Shipping data, for instance, showed just 12 commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday and Sunday, down from 35 during the previous weekend. 4 million bpd in August, the lowest since at least 2013.
9 million bpd over the past six days, up from just 700,000 bpd in August. The drop in oil prices helped lift most share markets, though liquidity was light with Japan on a three-day break. 4%. European share futures also nudged higher, with no sign as yet of any drag from news Chancellor Friedrich Merz's mainstream conservative party had suffered its worst election results since 1949.
00 yen amid concerns the Bank of Japan might take advantage of the lack of liquidity to intervene in support of its currency. The yen jumped on Friday after Japanese authorities conducted rate checks in the currency market, the Nikkei newspaper reported. It's also set to be a busy week for diplomacy with US President Donald Trump attending the United Nations General Assembly, ahead of a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng concluded talks in New York on Sunday with the US side proposing a new AI safety notification mechanism.
Key developments that could influence markets on Monday: - Appearances by ECB President Christine Lagarde, ECB Board member Piero Cipollone, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee (Wayne Cole) ***