Goldman Sachs sees risks to gas prices if Gulf LNG exports remain constrained

If no meaningful improvement in Persian Gulf LNG exports this winter, TTF and JKM will likely reach 105 Eur/mwh, $35/mmbtu by year-end, Goldman Sachs said, assuming average winter weather. This is well above its 70 Eur/mw and $24.85/mmbtu base case under a gradually improving Hormuz LNG flow assumption. Most demand destruction is expected in the industrial sector, with $30/mmbtu possibly triggering incremental destruction in India. Some gas-to-coal switching might be taking place among China industrial users. European LNG importers are expected to largely pass through high LNG costs