LIVE MARKETS — The midterms and the stock market
Main US indexes mixed; Nasdaq, S&P 500 up slightly, Dow slips Tech leads S&P 500 sector gainers; materials weakest group Dollar ~flat, gold up ~1%, US crude falls >2%; bitcoin rallies ~6% US 10-year Treasury yield rises to ~5.0% Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at The Midterms And The Stock Market With the Federal Reserve's hotly anticipated September meeting in the rearview mirror, strategists are now looking ahead to November's U.S. midterm elections. Morgan Stanley's Monica Guerra laid out some expectations regarding Congress and the market in a research report. With Republicans currently holding 220 U.S. House of Representatives seats compared with Democrats' 215, Guerra notes that this is the thinnest controlling margin since 1930. This means that Democrats need to gain just three seats on a net basis, to take control, while Republicans cannot afford to lose more than two seats. She points out that Democrats are leading in ballot polls that just ask voters which political party they would choose currently with a margin that has widened to 8.1 percentage points while the presidential a
0% Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you reporters. S. midterm elections. Morgan Stanley's Monica Guerra laid out some expectations regarding Congress and the market in a research report.
S. House of Representatives seats compared with Democrats' 215, Guerra notes that this is the thinnest controlling margin since 1930. This means that Democrats need to gain just three seats on a net basis, to take control, while Republicans cannot afford to lose more than two seats. 1 percentage points while the presidential approval rating is sitting near 40%.
5% increase in the price of regular gasoline since August 2025. "Forty-seven percent of registered voters say the cost of living will be the single most important factor in their voting decision, up from 39% in January," said Guerra. " However, while Republicans face meaningful risks that they will lose House control, they "should retain the Senate," the strategist said, citing the firm's base case scenario. While Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win an outright majority in the Senate, prediction-market readings, on September 16, for Democratic control were 86% to 88% for the House and just 54% to 59% for the Senate.
As for the market, the S&P 500's strongest average annual return in the year following a midterm election under a Republican president occurred with a split Congress, at 23%. This compares with a 10% return when Republicans controlled both the White House and Congress, Guerra wrote.
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