US Sentiment: Tech Leads as Oil Eases and BoJ Delivers a Split Hike

Markets are ending the week in a fairly mixed position. US equity futures are struggling for direction, with S&P futures basically flat and Nasdaq futures only slightly higher, while Treasury yields are moving up again despite a third straight day of falling oil prices. That leaves the market caught between some relief on the energy side and renewed pressure from the rates market. The broader picture has improved quite a bit from where the week started.

Brent began the week at a four-month high, long-dated Treasury yields were sitting around multi-decade extremes, and chip stocks were under pressure. Since then, the Fed’s rate hike has helped restore some confidence in its inflation-fighting stance, Middle East supply fears have eased enough to pull crude back below $104, and semiconductor earnings expectations remain supported by the persistent supply-demand imbalance in the sector. The main overnight event was the Bank of Japan decision. The BOJ raised rates as expected, but the vote was split, with two board members opposing the hike.

That has pushed the yen sharply lower because the split is being read as a sign that the Bank may tighten more gradually than markets had previously assumed. 98%. So the tone this morning is fairly balanced: lower oil is helping, but higher yields are still capping enthusiasm in equities, and the market is finishing the week with a more cautious rather than outright risk-on feel.