For today, Tuesday, September 15, futures are lower as the Fed begins its two-day policy meeting and the 10-year yield climbs above 5% again. Brent crude is up more than 2% near $108 after additional attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, while the 10-year yield reached roughly 5.03%, its highest since 2007; traders now assign about a 92%—94% probability of a 25-bp Fed hike Wednesday. Premarket, Alphabet and Microsoft are down more than 1%, while Nvidia is slightly higher; Dave & Buster's

For today, Tuesday, September 15, futures are lower as the Fed begins its two-day policy meeting and the 10-year yield climbs above 5% again. Brent crude is up more than 2% near $108 after additional attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, while the 10-year yield reached roughly 5.03%, its highest since 2007; traders now assign about a 92%—94% probability of a 25-bp Fed hike Wednesday. Premarket, Alphabet and Microsoft are down more than 1%, while Nvidia is slightly higher; Dave & Buster's is down roughly 14% after disappointing earnings, and crypto-linked Coinbase and Strategy are off more than 4% as Bitcoin weakens. Today's economic calendar includes August Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing, import/export prices and industrial production, but the dominant setup remains oil + 5% Treasury yields + tomorrow's Fed decision, dot plot and Chair Warsh press conference—with markets particularly sensitive to any indication that Wednesday's expected hike could be followed by additional tightening.