Clarity Act nears a Tuesday vote after GOP releases updated text

Former Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan says the CLARITY Act "can get there" to the 60 votes needed to clear its first Senate floor test Tuesday, as prediction market traders sharply raise their expectations for the crypto market-structure bill. Senators will vote at 2:15 p.m. ET on whether to end debate on the motion to proceed to CLARITY. Reaching 60 would allow the Senate to move toward debating and amending the bill. Falling short would leave supporters with little time to revive it before the end of the year. Polymarket gives the bill a 29% chance of becoming law this year, with $16.3 million traded. Odds rose from roughly 22% to 32% after Republicans released their final draft Sunday before easing slightly. Ryan, co-chair of the Blockchain Innovation Project, gave his assessment before Trump accepted most of a bipartisan ethics compromise aimed at winning Democratic support, according to the Associated Press. Ryan also advises Shyft Finance, an institutional DeFi yield platform, and serves on Coinbase’s Global Advisory Council. Ryan Says CLARITY ‘Can Get There’ to 60 "I think we can get there," Ryan told. "Gallego and Alsobrooks have shown they’re willing to engage, and there are others who understand the need for clear rules." Sens. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.) were the two Democrats who joined Republicans when the Senate Banking Committee advanced CLARITY 15-9 in May. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, meaning at least seven Democrats or independents are needed Tuesday if every Republican votes yes. Trump Gives Ground on Ethics Ryan called Democratic concerns around ethics and consumer protection legitimate and said Trump’s involvement in crypto "certainly complicates the politics." Since Ryan responded, a senior Republican aide told the Associated Press that Trump accepted roughly 80% of an ethics compromise negotiated by Republican Sen. Thom Tillis (R-SC) and Gallego. The new provisions strengthen conflict-of-interest rules, give state attorneys general enforcement powers and could require officials with significant crypto interests to divest or use a blind trust. Republicans released their final draft Sunday night, saying it incorporates 126 substantive changes requested by Democrats. "But this technology and this industry are bigger than any one president," Ryan said. "I want to see CLARITY passed, while making sure we get the details right." ‘Established Financial Interests’ Push Back Ryan said ethics is not the only source of resistance. "You also have established financial interests that don’t necessarily want the competition," he said. That fight matters directly to Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN ), which has been at the center of negotiations over stablecoin rewards. Average USDC held in Coinbase products reached a record $20 billio