EIA raises 2026 oil price outlook after Middle East output losses
The EIA now expects Brent crude to average about $91 a barrel in 2026 and WTI $84.65, both higher than its prior forecast. The agency said global oil stocks have fallen by an estimated 400 million barrels this year and cited reduced Middle East production and exports.
S. Energy Information Administration said the Iran war has cut global oil stocks by an estimated 400 million barrels this year and expects further declines by year-end amid the continued absence of significant Middle East output and exports. 7 million bpd in August from 5 million bpd in July, partly because of attacks on Saudi oil exports through Bab el-Mandeb and fewer ship departures from Yanbu port. The EIA now sees Brent crude averaging about $91 a barrel in the spot market in 2026, nearly 5% above its prior forecast.
65 a barrel, a similar percentage increase from earlier estimates. “$74/b in 2027,” the EIA said. The agency said Middle East oil flows are expected to recover in the coming months, but that timing depends on how the conflict develops. -Iran tensions, when Brent crude climbed above $100 a barrel on Wednesday after attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure.
On Monday, Goldman Sachs lifted its oil-price forecasts, saying Brent could rise above $120 a barrel if Persian Gulf supply disruptions continue. It said the increase would still be relatively moderate, citing stable OECD inventories and continued flows through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative pipelines. ” He said, “I think for gasoline, we’ll get them below $2 a gallon. 39 per barrel.